Font is likely to be the winner.Īt -375, Allen is this weekend’s heaviest favorite for his bout against Chris Curtis ($6,600).

With relatively close salaries, the winner of the main event is highly likely to be in the optimal lineup. His other three TKO losses were all via ground and pound, but Aldo’s 91% takedown defense means we are unlikely to see Font win the fight that way.įont’s salary makes him hard to avoid in any contest this week. Aldo is extremely durable, and has only ever been finished on the feet by Conor McGregor. Font has finished six of his nine UFC victories, five by knockout. While it’s not the likeliest option, Font also has a reasonable shot at a finish against Aldo. All of which helps explain his 84-point scoring average on DraftKings. He also knocks down his opponents at more than double the UFC average - a rarity for fighters in the lower weight classes. He attempts over 61 strikes per round, which is almost 50% higher than the UFC average. He leads the slate in both Median and Pts/Sal projections.įortunately, he’s more than capable of doing so. (As is Aldo, and for cash games, combining Font and Aldo - DraftKings should really switch their pricing for five-round fights.) With this one being a -135 favorite to go all five rounds, Font will need to get there with volume to live up to his lofty projections. UFC DFS Modelįont is a moderate favorite (-150 or so) in the main event against Jose Aldo ($7,800), which means he’s likely to be chalk. You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card below. These should give us a better sense as to which fighters we should target based upon the game type - maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example.

Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under.

Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under.

Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under.

He then pulled the DraftKings score from each fight to create floor, median and ceiling projections for every fighter.

The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections. We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs tools to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. eastern time on ESPN+, with the main card starting at 10. Rob Font and Jose Aldo square off in the main event, with the winner in a solid position to challenge for a title shot. The UFC is back after a break for Thanksgiving, returning with top-five Bantamweight action.

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